Tariffs, Tech & Trust: Navigating the Next Phase of U.S.–Japan Trade Ties

2025 saw some strains in the U.S.-Japan trade and security relationships but also significant developments, with the landmark U.S.–Japan trade agreement in July securing Japan a 15% tariff for its exports to the U.S., and for the U.S. increased market access into Japan and $550 billion Japanese investment into the U.S.

Cooperation across technology, critical minerals and supply chains were further strengthened when President Trump visited Tokyo in October and signed the Technology Prosperity Deal, and Japan joined the launch of the new U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative in December.

While the U.S. and Japan have solidified their economic partnership through these pacts, will their implementation be straightforward as we move into the second year of the Trump administration? Are more tariffs or other U.S. trade measures on the cards for 2026 that will test the relationship? The security alliance also faces strains, with upcoming burden-sharing negotiations and questions about alignment of Taiwan policy. Geopolitical tensions in the region remain high, and challenges from China are still at the forefront of both Japan and the U.S.’ economic calculations. What opportunities are there for Japan and the U.S. to enhance their trade and economic cooperation further this year, especially as the two countries’ grapple with building up their economic resilience and security in a volatile global environment?

Join the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) on February 2 for a panel discussion on the challenges and the opportunities for the Japan-U.S. economic and trade relationship as we head into 2026. ASPI Senior Vice President, Wendy Cutler, will be joined by Yuka Hayashi, Vice President at The Asia Group; William Chou, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair; and Emma Chanlett-Avery, Director for Political-Security Affairs at ASPI.

This panel discussion is held in conjunction with the 2026 Emerging Female Trade Leaders program for Japan.

5:00 pm: Doors open and registration
5:30-6:30 pm: Panel discussion
6:30-7:30 pm: Reception

Wendy Cutler (moderator) is Senior Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), based in Washington, D.C. In this role, she focuses on leading initiatives that address challenges related to trade, investment, economic security, and innovation, as well as women’s empowerment in Asia. She joined ASPI following an illustrious career of nearly three decades as a diplomat and negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), where she also served as Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative. During her USTR career, she worked on a range of bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade negotiations and initiatives, including the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, U.S.-China negotiations, and the WTO Financial Services negotiations. She has published a series of ASPI papers on the Asian trade landscape and serves as a regular media commentator on trade and investment developments in Asia and the world.

Emma Chanlett-Avery is Deputy Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute's Washington, DC office and the Director for Political-Security Affairs. Emma leads Congressional outreach efforts and directs ASPI’s policy engagement on Indo-Pacific alliances. Previous to this post, she served for 20 years as a Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, where she focused on United States relations with Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Thailand, and Singapore, with an emphasis on security issues. In 2023, she served as a Congressional Fellow on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, assisting the Chairman with drafting Asia policy legislation and preparing for hearings. Ms. Chanlett-Avery was a Presidential Management Fellow, with rotations in the State Department on the Korea Desk and at the Joint United States Military Advisory Group in Bangkok, Thailand. She also worked in the Office of Policy Planning as a Harold Rosenthal Fellow. She is a member of the Mansfield Foundation United States–Japan Network for the Future and a Mansfield-Luce Asia Network Scholar. She is a recipient of the Kato Prize, awarded by Washington think tanks for strengthening the United States-Japan alliance. She serves as Chairwoman of the Board of Directors of the National Association of Japan-America Societies, Counselor of the Board of Trustees of the Japan-America Society of Washington, DC, and a Trustee of International Student Conferences, Inc. Ms. Chanlett-Avery received an MA in international security policy from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and her BA in Russian studies from Amherst College.

William Chou is a senior fellow and deputy director of Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair. His work at Hudson focuses on the United States’ relationship with Japan and other Indo-Pacific issues, especially economic security, trade and investment, and regional partnerships. Dr. Chou’s recent projects include analyses of the Nippon Steel–US Steel partnership, economic security cooperation among the US, Japan, and the European Union, automotive and critical mineral supply chains, and US industrial and trade initiatives around the world. Dr. Chou writes and speaks regularly on policy issues, with his analysis appearing in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Politico, The Washington Post, Nikkei, The New York Times, and the Financial Times. He holds a BA in history from Yale and a PhD in history from the Ohio State University, with a dissertation and book manuscript on Cold War US-Japan commercial and diplomatic relations. He is a former fellow at the Smithsonian, the Clements Center at the University of Texas at Austin, and the University of Tokyo. He began his career as a research analyst at the Institute for Defense Analyses during the Iraq War.

Yuka Hayashi is a Vice President at The Asia Group and a member of the firm’s Japan Practice. Leveraging decades of experience as a journalist in Japan and the United States, Yuka oversees the team’s research and analytical work across the Washington and Tokyo offices. She ensures that clients receive top-quality advice and cutting-edge materials that are also easy to digest. Prior to joining The Asia Group, Yuka was a journalist for The Wall Street Journal for two decades. From Washington, she covered trade and economic security policy under the Trump and Biden administrations and international economy. Between 2004 and 2015, she was a Journal correspondent in Tokyo, where she wrote about Japan’s economy, society and East Asian geopolitics. She spent a year covering the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident. Yuka’s work as a journalist was recognized by various press organizations, including the National Press Club, Gerald Loeb Awards and the Society of American Business Editors and Writers. She started her career in journalism at Reuters and covered economic policy, business and finance at Dow Jones in New York and Tokyo. Yuka is Co-Chair of the U.S.-Japan Council’s DC Region and serves as a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist think tank. She has a bachelor’s degree in economics from Waseda University in Tokyo and a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.

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