THE FUTURE OF FAMILIES CONFERENCE - TACKLING LONG-TERM CHALLENGES

Families form the foundation of society, and understanding how they are doing and changing is vital for communities, local economies and policymakers. They are more dynamic than we think, changing individually and collectively over time, with a trend towards later marriage, more cohabitation, later children and more diverse forms. In recent years families have had to navigate the Great Financial Crisis, austerity, structural changes in the housing and labour markets, the pandemic, and now the cost of living crisis.

A “notable hallmark of British families is their greater fragility and complexity compared with families in other Western European countries” according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (Kiernan et al, 2022). Separation and transitions into and out of single parenthood are common (Rabindrakumar et al, 2018), with single parenthood levels much higher than Europe. Unsurprisingly, needs are diverse and many policies often interact with changes at the family level to shape outcomes for children and adults. Understanding how families are doing and changing is vital for policies that cut across government and civil society – but can be complex. Parenting, relationships, money and economic stability, and housing all matter, as do social and cultural norms, race, gendered division of labour, and safe neighbourhoods.

The resources (time and money) and capabilities parents or guardians have for caring and development is hugely varied, and with cuts to public services over the years, families are having to do much more – with ringfenced spending on children’s social services going up (Institute for Government, 2023). Divergent destinies start at an early age, even with the growing focus on investment in early years and parenting. Education, health and economic advantages and disadvantages are transmitted from one generation to the next, with parents’ income and wealth of ever-growing importance in determining the position of children over their lifetime.

This major conference will focus on the long-term challenges faced by families and debate the direction for policy and action. Supported by expert speakers and emerging evidence from Understanding Society, it will focus on four major areas: starting a family; parenting and health; economic constraints and poverty; and housing. Transforming the lives of children depends on understanding contemporary families and how they can be supported (Family Review, 2022). With a new government keen to drive change and promote social mobility, what does life-course and long-term evidence point to for improving the lives of families? How can we better integrate vertical policies, including the expected UK Child Poverty Strategy, with evidence-based programmes and family services to support those most vulnerable or disadvantaged?

09.30 – 10.00 REGISTRATION

10.00 – 10.15 WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION

10.15 – 11.00 KEYNOTE SPEAKER

Rise of economic inequality and the changing nature of parenting | Professor Matthias Doepke, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, and Co-author of Love, Money and Parenting

11.00 – 11.20 REFRESHMENT BREAK

11.20 – 12.50 PARALLEL DISCUSSIONS* (choice of two topics)

SESSION 1 – STARTING A FAMILY

Economic conditions, house prices and fertility | Dr Daniël van Wijk, postdoctoral researcher, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute-KNAW/University of Groningen, The Netherlands

Intentions to remain childless – macro-economic uncertainty or personal financial worries? | Dr Bernice Kuang, Research Fellow in Demography, University of Southampton

Similar or different? Fertility amongst migrant groups | Dr Sarah Christison, Research Fellow, Population and Health Research Group, University of St Andrews, working on the Fertility Trends Project

SESSION 2 – PARENTING AND HEALTH

Parenting, fathers and children’s development | Dr Greta Morando, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Sheffield and visiting Fellow at UCL and LSE

Parental mental health and children’s development | Dr Aja Murray, Reader, Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh. Aja’s research focuses on developmental aspects of mental health

Windows of developmental sensitivity to social media | Professor Andrew Przybylski, Professor of Human Behaviour and Technology, Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford

12.50 - 13.45 LUNCH

13.45 – 15.15 PARALLEL DISCUSSIONS* (choice of two topics)

SESSION 3 – ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS AND POVERTY

Learning from the pandemic: Can economic support improve relationship quality? | Professor Brienna Perelli-Harris, Professor of Demography, Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton

Title of presentation to be confirmed | Professor Susan Harkness, School for Policy Studies, University of Bath

A growing gap in childcare? | Dr Giacomo Vagni, Lecturer, Department of Sociology and Criminology, University of Essex

SESSION 4 - HOUSING

Who is at risk of overcrowding – and how does it impact on children’s wellbeing? | Dr Ben Brindle, Researcher, The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford & Sarah Taylor, Deputy Director of Research, Office of the Children's Commissioner

Will hybrid working generate greater inequalities between families? | Dr David McCollum, Senior Lecturer, School of Geography and Sustainable Development, St Andrews University

Housing inequalities and implications for younger generations | David Sturrock, Senior Research Economist, Institute for Fiscal Studies

15.15 – 15.30 REFRESHMENTS

15.30 – 16.30 FIRESIDE CONVERSATION ON POLICY PRIORITIES AND INTEGRATION

• Naomi Eisenstadt CB, Chair of NHS Northamptonshire Integrated Care Board and Co- author of Parents, Poverty and the State

• Lord Michael Farmer, House of Lords and Family Hubs Network founder

• Sir David Holmes CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Family Action

16.30 – 17.30 DRINKS RECEPTION AND NETWORKING

SESSION 1: STARTING A FAMILY

There is growing debate about how many babies people are choosing to have, when, and what the policy and societal implications might be. The overall birth rate in the UK is in decline, and this is also the case in countries with good family-friendly policies. From pro-family to ‘pro-natalism’, policymakers are having to take a closer look at the challenge of gradual declining births in the context of sustaining long-term economic dynamism and an ageing society. What’s driving a decline or delay in fertility among different groups is a complex question, with many factors implicated in family formation and transition, e.g., not being able to find a suitable partner or repartnering, delayed transitions to adulthood, relationship quality, economic uncertainty, housing, cost of bringing up children, life-choices, class, etc. Does evidence offer insights into this societal shift, and how factors might be interacting? Are family formation patterns similar among immigrant and minoritised groups?

SESSION 2: PARENTING AND HEALTH

Good parenting and family health provide a solid foundation when growing up, and the quality of the relationships and the home learning environment are of paramount importance for children’s development and wellbeing. Authoritarian parenting is in decline, but parenting, which was a relaxed affair a few decades ago, has become intensive in countries with high-stakes education systems and higher levels of economic inequality (Doepke and Zilibotti, 2019). Stresses and strains due to economic pressures and parental mental health, separately and collectively, diminish the cognitive and emotional development of children in early years (IFS, 2022) – and research indicates that approximately 10-15% of children in the UK live with a parent who has a mental disorder. With intergenerational health more highly correlated than intergenerational income (Brown, 2019), addressing health issues at the family level is vital. Furthermore, there is growing concern about excessive screen time and social media use among children and its cultural, social and health effects.

SESSION 3: ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS AND POVERTY

Economic shocks, insecure income, debt, high costs of living and childcare, and ill health and disability all put stress on relationships and family stability. Economic circumstances don’t only affect the ability of families to afford nutritional food, fuel, daily necessities and adapt to unforeseen events, but also children’s development, health and educational attainment. Likewise family break-down can have economic as well as health and wellbeing consequences. Despite high levels of in-work poverty, entering work still has a strong poverty reduction effect. However, compared to working-age adults and pensioners, children today have the highest rate of persistent poverty after housing costs, (DWP, 2024). Families have declined in size over time, and fewer children live in large families today, but their risk of being in poverty has increased significantly since the introduction of the two-child benefit cap in 2017. The long-term effects of the pandemic on children are also of concern, but what are we learning about its effects and that of the furlough scheme?

SESSION 4: HOUSING

From overcrowding and housing insecurity to the cost of rents, mortgages and challenges of getting onto the housing ladder, housing shapes many aspects of development – and is equally shaped by our choices. The current housing crisis is impacting on families in quite different and interlocking ways. One consequences of the crisis is the rise of households in the private rented sector with dependent children (30%). For most families, owning the house they live in is by far one of their largest (potential) sources of wealth, and while real incomes have stagnated, the value of wealth driven by house prices has continued to rise. Worryingly, parents’ ownership of their home has become a much better predictor of the possibility of children becoming homeowners (Social Mobility Commission, 2023). Whereas more advantaged families can often make intentional moves to better housing or neighbourhoods, more disadvantaged families are at risk of deterioration of their housing contexts – with the ‘sorting’ of poorer households into areas with the worst schools, crime, pollution and employment. So how can a rounded strategy be developed for improving the quality and quantity of housing for families?

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