Data for an Uncertain World: Scientific and Governance Considerations

GEMM (Global Environmental Measurement and Monitoring) Seminar

9:30 - 11:00 @ Learning and Teaching Building (TL324 ), University of Strathclyde

Keynote Speaker: Prof David McKee

At 56N, Glasgow currently enjoys a very moderate climate that is supported by the Gulf Stream bringing warm water from the south to our western shores.

Our future climate, however, is considerably less certain. We are already seeing evidence of increasingly frequent and severe storms, changes in growing seasons for garden plants and a range of other features which are consistent with predictions for the onset of climate change. However, the rate of warming is now suspected to be sufficiently fast that concerns have been raised by prominent climate researchers on the stability of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic.

The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is a key process that sees warm water from the south cool, sink and form deep bottom water that then flows back south. It has been suggested that the odds of this process failing in the next 100 years are as much as 50:50. Should this occur, Scotland’s future climate would no longer be warmer, wetter and windier, but would be as much as 10 degrees colder with potentially devastating impacts on society.

This additional level of uncertainty presents a particularly acute challenge for future planning for society. It also poses a tremendously difficult observational and modelling challenge for the scientific community.

Is it possible to develop an early warning system that would provide advanced notice of which direction we are heading in?

How should society (at all levels) respond to this uncertainty and plan for the future?

This is a challenge that will take decades to resolve. How can we address it in a system where political decision making and scientific funding operates on much shorter time scales?

All staff are welcome to come to this event, part of the University's Sustainability Week 2026.

Light refreshments and opportunities for networking will be provided.

GEMM is a university wide initiative hosted within the Centre for Sustainable Development. Originally supported by OPTICA and AGU, GEMM was linked to strategic institutions overseas interested in sensing and policy. GEMM is at an exciting turning point with the opportunity to reflect on what “measurement” and “monitoring” mean from different disciplines and how they relate to “policy” in global environmental matters. The GEMM seminars serve as an opportunity to bring together colleagues from across the University (staff and students) to discuss the content and the future of GEMM.

Know what’s Happening Next — before everyone else does.

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Host or Publisher Centre for Sustainable Development