The Politics of Uncertainty: Risk, Surprise, and World Politics

This lecture addresses the conundrum that risk and uncertainty pose for political analysis in general and, specifically, the analysis of world politics. Modernity predisposes us to seek to control life as much as possible, converting its unfathomable uncertainties into manageable risks. The conundrum consists of the unending intermingling of the probable and the possible, leaving us forever surprised. Illustrating the conundrum’s persistence in the politics of finance, nuclear war, and global warming, I show how it is grounded in our implicitly held Newtonian and humanist worldviews. Twentieth-century science has developed theories pointing to Post-Newtonian and Para-humanist worldviews that more fully acknowledge the power of uncertainty without sacrificing productive, risk-based analyses. Conventional political analysis and the analysis of world politics could learn from the humility-instilling advances of 20th century sciences.

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Host or Publisher Departmant of Global Inquiry