The Fed and the Flu Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks

Every pandemic delivers an initial shock, but it also casts a longer shadow over the medium term. Most importantly, in the authors’ view, every pandemic is a learning opportunity that can be leveraged to better inform responses to future pandemics.

About the Author David Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and served as its CIO. He continues to serve as a Strategic Advisor. His commentaries have been cited in The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s. He has contributed to Bloomberg TV and Radio, and Yahoo Finance TV. He holds an M.S. in organizational dynamics, and an M.A. in philosophy from UPenn. David coauthored From Bear to Bull with ETFs and Adventures in Muniland. He authored three pamphlets: Lessons from Thucydides, Zika, and Yield Curve Control – The story of ZIRP and NIRP. He is a member of NBEIC, NABE, and the Global Interdependence Center.

A Word from David Kotok

I have been intrigued by the impacts of epidemics and pandemics for more than a half century. My journey began in 1966 when, as a second lieutenant in the US Army, I was assigned to the 485th Preventive Medicine Unit attached to the 7th Army, Europe. Fact is, disease has killed more soldiers throughout all wars than swords, arrows, bullets, and bombs have. The task of the 485th was to try to protect soldiers from epidemic disease. The writing and research in this book are the culmination of over a half century’s focus on disease and epidemic impacts on economy. An economy and its financial market function best when market agents are not sick and don’t have disease risk on their minds. And while an economy can be spurred in the short term by subduing fear — a popular strategy — it cannot be fully restored as longas pandemic-caused disease, death, and disability continue to erode human health and productivity.

Host or Publisher Senior Friendship Centers