Great Fragmentation: International order and the rise of middle powers

Join a focused expert discussion exploring the fragmentation of the international order, the rise of middle powers, and what shifting geopolitical influence means for the future of international stability. This event will present new research from the IEP and bring together leading experts from Queen’s University Belfast to interpret the implications of shifts in the international order.

As the international order shifts from the era of globalisation into a period of “Great Fragmentation,” geopolitical influence is becoming more dispersed and complex. Western powers are experiencing a relative decline in influence, while a growing group of middle powers are asserting greater influence across diplomacy, security, and in economic domains - often outside traditional alliances. In this context, understanding which middle powers are rising, how they are likely to act, and what this means for global governance is important.

This is critical junction in history and international affairs. Mark Carney's (Prime Minister of Canada) speech delivered at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2026 in Davos is an example of this "Great Fragmentation" (or these shifts in international relations) and the rise of middle powers.

In this event, Steve Killelea, founder and CEO of Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), will present new research analysing the rise of middle powers. Leading scholars/experts from QUB will discuss the findings of IEPs research and explore some of the implications of these shifting international dynamics.

You can download the IEP report here: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/middle-powers-reshape-global-order-in-post-superpower-era/

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