EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains The World

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.

Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients.
A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in J*il. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications.
A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach.
And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.
From medical testing to artificial intelligence, join Tom Chivers as he shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences and its impact on modern life.

Tom Chivers is a science writer, having written for the i newspaper, UnHerd, BuzzFeed UK, New Scientist, the Guardian and the Telegraph.
He has won several awards, including the Royal Statistical Society’s award for statistical excellence in journalism (twice, in 2018 and 2020) and the Association of British Science Writers’ science journalist of the year (in 2021).
He is co-host of the popular podcast 'The Studies Show' and has published several books including 'The Rationalists Guide to the Galaxy', a Times’s science book of the year, 'How To Read Numbers' . His latest 'Everything is Predictable', will be available to purchase at the event, on the night.

Presentations take place upstairs in the Nightingale Room at the Grand Central Pub, opposite Brighton Station. Unfortunately there is no wheelchair accessibility.

• DOORS OPEN: 7:00pm (£5 on the door)
• TALK STARTS: 7:30pm
• AUDIENCE Q&A: 8:30pm
• BOOK SIGNING: 9pm

Host or Publisher Brighton Skeptics in the Pub