China’s Prosperous Middle-Income Class: Growth and Implications

A prosperous, middle-income class is regarded as important for China’s transition to consumption-led growth and for the achievement of common prosperity. In this talk Prof. Sicular presents evidence on the emergence of a prosperous middle-income class in China and discusses whether it can fulfill these expectations. Analysis based on household survey data spanning 2002 through 2023 reveals successful growth but slowing in recent years. As well, this middle-income class is not overly consumption-oriented, and its propensity to consume out of income has declined. Recent policy initiatives such as the 2025 ‘Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption’ contain promising policy proposals and signal that China’s leaders placing greater emphasis on demand-side measures. Their success will depend on policy design and implementation, and on the responses of China’s numerous, heterogeneous households.

Terry Sicular is a leading expert on China’s economy. Her recent research addresses questions related to income distribution and economic policy in China. She is a long-time participant in the China Household Income Project (CHIP), a collaborative household survey research endeavour. She is visiting the University of Manchester as Hallsworth Visiting Professor. Her home base is Western University (Canada), and she also is affiliated as a Professorial Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute and as a Fellow in East Asian Studies (Sinology) at the University of Vienna. She received her Ph.D. in economics from Yale University.

The MCI is a listed building and therefore does not have any lifts. Please note that you must use the stairs in order to access the venue and the toilets.

The organisers will be taking photos during this event. If you prefer not to be included in any photos, kindly inform the organisers before the event starts.

Know what’s Happening Next — before everyone else does.

Get App

Host or Publisher The Manchester China Institute