Uncertain Times: India ’s Turbulent Neighbourhood and Its Implications

University of Pennsylvania Institute for Advanced Study of India

Organizes Webinar on

Uncertain Times:

India’s Turbulent Neighbourhood and Its Implications

The Indian subcontinent is undergoing uncertain times. Bangladesh saw the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her leaving the country. This came after days of mass protests, led by students on the contentious quota reservations in public jobs. Many were killed in the protests and the anger was ultimately directed at Hasina’s ouster. A new interim government has been setup led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus. Fresh elections are yet to be announced. However, the situation is still in a flux and stability is yet to be attained. There have been concerns raised about the secular credentials of the new government, and attacks on minorities that have taken place. The Indian government have questioned the future of investments in Bangladesh. Underlying anti-Indian sentiments in some segments could also become a thorny issue to tackle.

In other parts of the neighbourhood too, there have been political shifts taking place. Sri Lanka is going to have its Presidential elections in September 2024. With suspense hanging over chances of incumbent President Wickremesinghe getting re-elected, who is not being backed by the Rajapaksas. India’s relation with the new political establishment in Colombo, no matter which side it moves, is yet to be seen.

After losing the no-confidence motion, Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ has been replaced by KP Sharma Oli in a new coalition government. Nepal being India’s strategic ally, the relation the new government maintains with New Delhi will be an important development to watch.

Pakistan has had prolonged instability since last year with former prime minister Imran Khan in J*il and the recent unprecedented arrest of a former ISI chief. The Maldives appear to be tilting against India. Myanmar is in turmoil under a military regime challenged by rebels and the India-China border issue remains unresolved.

Regional cooperation among the South-Asian countries, through attempts such as the SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation) as well as the recent attempts to promote alternatives such as BIMSTEC, has largely remained unsuccessful due to the dynamic and contested nature of politics between the countries. And larger geopolitical cleavages between the US and China, and importance of the Indo-Pacific region as a major strategic location, has come to bear impact on the Indian subcontinent.

At this juncture, this webinar aims at taking a closer look at these developments and discuss what could these uncertain times hold for India’s regional security, economy and its global trajectory as well as for the region.

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