Tutorial: "Is Our Program/Project Risk Evaluation Method Fit for Purpose?"

Tutorial: “Is our Program/project risk evaluation method fit for purpose?”

Presenter: Keith Hornbacher

Development programs are often known for their notorious track records of missing control objectives (late, over budget). And sometimes they under-deliver their technical objectives. This INCOSE tutorial features comparisons among recommended Program/project risk management practices and experiences drawn from several systems-oriented programs, many classic construction projects, and several physical infrastructure mega-projects.

Discussion of case examples will identify common traits (both favorable and unfavorable) and explore questions important to organizations interested in change.

Goal: Identify program risk assessment characteristics implemented by effective organizations

Objectives

· Understand strengths and weaknesses of program risk management practices

· Describe a collaborative process to handle uncertainty and risk

· Discuss favorable/unfavorable factors using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) in risk analysis

· Establish actionable goals for changing organizations

Agenda (times approximate, breaks hourly)

Sign in, Snacks, Introductions: 08:00 (0.5 hr)

Module 1: Fit for Purpose Briefing 08:30 (1 hr)

Module 2: Risk Identification and Evaluation - Practical Applications 09:30 (2 hrs)

Lunch (provided) 11:30 (0.5 hr)

Module 3: Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis using MCS (demo) 12:00 (2 hrs)

Module 4: Risk Management and Change Issues 14:00 (1 hr)

Wrap up: 15:00 (0.5 hr.)

Dismissal: 15:30

Identification and Evaluation Methods: Risk Registers, Quantitative evaluation; Cost Risk Analysis, Schedule Risk Analysis, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis; MCS.

Tools: Participants interested in trying the network based MCS software tool demonstrated will be provided instructions how to obtain a free demo copy[1].

During the tutorial, several sources will be cited[2].

[1] Neither INCOSE nor Hornbacher & Associates promote vendors’ software tools.

[2] SYSTEMS ENGINEERING HANDBOOK, Fifth Edition INCOSE–TP–2003–002–05 2023; ISO-31000 (2018); AACE International Recommended Practices; Project Managenent Institute; GAO Guides; NASA Handbooks and Guides

Course Speaker

Bio - Keith Hornbacher, MBA

Principal Consultant, Hornbacher & Associates

Hornbacher & Associates is a firm whose consultants have performed Project Risk Management services for owners and contractors over 30 years with scopes of all types and sizes. Programs/projects have ranged from multi-year infrastructure mega-projects to uncomplicated single season construction work in both the public and private sectors.

In 1993 Keith Hornbacher and Kristin Hauser co-founded their firm after working in the Los Angeles firm that developed internationally recognized quantitative project risk analysis methods and software. Example assignments include programmatic risk analysis of multi-billion-dollar aerospace/defense systems development programs and environmentally sensitive water treatment projects.

Mr. Hornbacher was an early program risk manager for Raytheon’s Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) program to develop the satellite-based air traffic management system now in place across North America. He worked as a member of NASA’s Independent Program Office (IPO) Standing Review Boards for development programs. Later he conducted GAO reviews of NASA’s Orion program and other federal programs.

Ms. Hauser was a key member of the team that evaluated the Canadian Hibernia “ice berg alley” mega project, had “boots on the ground” working with construction management of linear projects and, lately, was a cost-schedule risk analyst of vertical construction projects for the US Naval Facilities Command Southwest.

Keith Hornbacher recently celebrated the conclusion of more than 15 years delivering graduate seminars as an affiliated faculty member, Organizational Dynamics - University of Pennsylvania. During COVID, he and Ms. Hauser virtually co-taught a set of graduate seminars whose participants spanned the globe. He was previously an INCOSE North Star Chapter board member.

Hornbacher & Associates is a Minnesota Certified Veteran Owned Small Business.

Register no later than Friday, 4 October 2024

ONLY 40 SEATS AVAILABLE

Cost to attend:

Non members - $325.00*

INCOSE Members (FULL members only - excludes CAB memberships) - $150.00

Senior INCOSE members - $50.00

Students - $ 25.00

*Please note: The Non-Member full priced registration includes a one-year membership to INCOSE. Membership will be activated during the check-in process.

: 7700 France Ave S # 500, Edina, MN 55435 Classroom: 0519

Parking is available in the West or East lot, but you'll find more parking available in the ramp. All parking is free.

Please use the East or West directions below, to locate the North elevators and up to the 5th floor to Classroom 0519.

Host or Publisher North Star Chapter INCOSE