Treasury Guest Lecture with Prof. Shiro Armstrong: IN-PERSON attendance

Join us for the next lecture in our new seminar series

The rules-based trading system was designed to avert a repeat of the 1930s spiral of protectionism and conflict by anchoring trade in enforceable, non-discriminatory rules. That architecture—centred on the GATT/WTO—expanded prosperity and reduced the risks that arise when commerce becomes hostage to power politics. Today, outdated rules, weakened enforcement and growing willingness to bypass multilateral constraints are narrowing cooperation to trusted partners. In response, governments are adopting “second-best” economic security strategies—friendshoring, reshoring, industrial policy and selective restrictions—that can make sense individually but, in aggregate, accelerate fragmentation, slow growth and raise the costs of decarbonisation.

Asia is emerging as a pivotal coalition-builder for defending the trading system. ASEAN’s convening role, the scale and openness of RCEP and CPTPP, and the spread of workarounds such as the WTO’s Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement provide practical platforms to keep rules credible, markets open, and disputes manageable even in a more contested order. The coalition agenda is pragmatic: lock in equal treatment where possible, develop regional “pathfinder” rules on subsidies and security exceptions, and pursue mutual restraint and disarmament of economic weaponry—so that competition remains rules-based rather than coercive.

About this event

This will be a hybrid event. Please use this site to register if you plan to attend it in person.

If you would like to attend it virtually, please use THIS LINK to register.

About the presenter

Shiro Armstrong is Professor of Economics and Director of International Partnerships at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. He is Director of the Australia-Japan Research Centre, Editor of the East Asia Forum, and Director of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

He is also a Visiting Professor at Keio University, Research Associate at the Center on Japanese Economy and Business at the Columbia Business School, Non-resident Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan and Research Associate at the New Zealand APEC Study Centre. Shiro is the recipient of the 2024 Nakasone Yasuhiro Award.

Professor Armstrong is a member of the Board of the Australia Japan Foundation and is on the Academic Advisory Council of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

About this seminar series

New ideas, robust evidence, and insights from leading thinkers are crucial to strengthening the Treasury’s economic analysis and policy advice. Our new guest lecture theme — Navigating Global Shifts: Resilience, Challenges and Opportunities for New Zealand — invites us to reflect on how Aotearoa New Zealand can navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected global environment.

This series explores the major global forces that shape our economic landscape, including evolving trade relationships, geopolitical developments, and the global movement of people, capital, and ideas. Through these discussions, we aim to deepen our understanding of how New Zealand can build economic resilience, respond effectively to uncertainty, and harness our regional and international partnerships to support economic performance, productivity, and our living standards.

Our speakers explore strategies for mitigating the impacts of global disruptions — from pandemics and climate‑related events to geopolitical tensions and supply‑chain shocks – while also examining potential opportunities presented by rapid technological shifts, digital economy, and global innovations, to name a few. The series considers the role of government in supporting economic transitions, strengthening national resilience, and ensuring that New Zealand remains well‑positioned to meet emerging global opportunities. By bringing together diverse perspectives, this series seeks to inspire new ways of thinking about New Zealand’s economic future and to support informed, forward‑looking policymaking.

Please note that the views, opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in the Treasury Guest Lecture Series are those of the individual presenters. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government.

For updates and our latest research visit: www.treasury.govt.nz

Keep in touch

If you would like to be the first to hear about our upcoming events in the Treasury Guest Lecture Series, please SUBSCRIBE to stay up to date.

Know what’s Happening Next — before everyone else does.

Get App

Host or Publisher Treasury