TIACOE Research Seminar: Dr Paul Luk

We are thrilled to invite you to the upcoming Research Seminar at the Asia School of Business, featuring Dr Paul Luk.

Seminar Title: War in Ukraine and Global Inflationary Pressure: How Fiscal and Monetary Policy Should Cooperate in the Face of a Temporary Supply-Side Shock.

Event Details

📅 Date: 5 November 2025

⏰ Time: 12:30 PM – 1:30 PM

📍 Venue: Level 3, CR-W3-01, Asia School of Business

📝 Register now!

About the speaker:

Dr. Sheung Kan (Paul) Luk is a Senior Economist in the Research Department of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. His research spans macroeconomics, international macroeconomics, and the Chinese economy, with publications in leading journals such as the Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, and China Economic Review—the latter earning the Elsevier Best Paper Award (2021). Prior to joining the HKMA, Dr. Luk served as Assistant Professor of Economics at Hong Kong Baptist University and as an Economist at the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. He holds a D.Phil. and M.Phil. in Economics from the University of Oxford, and a B.Sc. in Actuarial Science from the University of Hong Kong.

Abstract:

This paper discusses the optimal policy response to a temporary rise in energy prices, a situation like that caused by the war in Ukraine. The objective is to use a tax cut to avoid the emergence of a wage price spiral, in the presence of the kind of real-wage resistance which has been shown to be empirically important, and yet also to avoid large increases in interest rates. We use a fully articulated macroeconomic model to show how to prevent such a policy strategy from creating excess demand in the short run, thereby counteracting the anti-inflationary effects of the tax cut, and so prevent Ponzi-game-like fiscal outcomes in the longer term. The purpose of this exercise is to see what benefit can be obtained by making the consumption tax variable.

We look forward to your participation in this insightful research seminar.

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