Stimulus, debt, and structural reform: the state of the Chinese economy

China’s economy hasn’t been what it was. Even before Covid, Xi Jinping spoke often of a “new normal” of slower growth and a pressing need for structural reform. In late 2024, we see a new round of stimulus, but the long-term results and prognosis are less clear. Victor Shih and William Hurst will discuss various aspects of China’s economy today and its potential road ahead.

Victor Shih is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. He is the author of two books published by the Cambridge University Press, “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation” and “Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi.” He is also editor of “Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions,” published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics.

Shih is a professor of political science, director of the 21st Century China Center, and the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations. He is currently engaged in a study of the activities of the Chinese elite and of Chinese defense firms around the world. He is also maintaining a large database on biographical information of elites in China.

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