Snow much uncertainty! Improving communication of winter weather forecasts

Three to six inches of snow. A 40% chance of rain. You’ve seen forecasts like these your entire life, relying on them to decide what to wear or whether to change your travel plans. But would you prepare differently for three inches of snow than for six? What if the range was two to eight inches instead? These decisions aren’t trivial. Two inches of snow versus eight is the difference between a normal Tuesday and closed highways, schools, and businesses. Because winter forecasts can remain uncertain up until snowfall, how do we understand what these forecasts mean and how do we act on them?

In this Explorer Series lecture, Robert Prestley will explain how people interpret uncertain forecasts and make decisions during winter storms and other weather hazards. He will also highlight how NSF NCAR’s research informs the forecasts you see every day.

This is a free public event recommended for ages 12+

This event is brought to you by the Education, Engagement & Early-Career Development (EdEC) team. Learn more on our website. For more information about public engagement and to watch archived lectures, visit the NSF NCAR Explorer Series webpage.