Russia’s Gamble: The Domestic Origins of International Assault 02/22

In February 2022, Russia launched a military assault on Ukraine, aiming to re-establish control over the Ukrainian state, economy, and society in ways reminiscent of the Soviet period. However, this goal has not been achieved, and it is unlikely to be achieved in the future. Instead, the Russian "special military operation" has led to extraordinary disasters and losses for Russia, Ukraine, and the entire world. This presentation will explore the origins of Russia's assault on Ukraine and provide an explanation for its failure to achieve its objectives. The personalist nature of the Russian authoritarian political regime, its vulnerability to poor governance, major misperceptions by Russian elites and leadership, and the Kremlin's reliance on previous experiences of impunity were key factors that led to the decision to attack Ukraine and continue to shape Russia's flawed policy decisions.

Host or Publisher Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies