Putin’s Last Rodeo and Beyond

Drawing on his recent National Interest essay, S. Frederick Starr, an American historian and policy analyst, Chairman of the Central Asia–Caucasus Institute, and Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, examines Russia’s trajectory after the war in Ukraine by looking beyond personalities to deeper structural forces. He argues that military losses, economic strain, demographic decline, and mounting tensions between Moscow and the regions are reshaping the country in ways that challenge long-held assumptions about Russia’s stability and cohesion.

The discussion will explore a range of possible outcomes, including managed succession, prolonged authoritarian rule, increased regional autonomy, and scenarios in which the Russian state begins to fragment. Starr also considers what internal instability or partial breakup would mean for Russia’s neighbors, global energy markets, nuclear security, and Western policy planning. The event offers a sober, forward-looking assessment of Russia’s future and why it matters well beyond Russia’s borders.

Hors d'oeuvres and refreshments will be provided.
RSVP is recommended, and donations welcomed.

S. Frederick Starr is a leading American historian and policy analyst with decades of experience studying Russia, Eurasia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. He is Chairman of the Central Asia–Caucasus Institute and has played a central role in shaping Western understanding of post-Soviet political, economic, and security dynamics. Starr has advised U.S. and European policymakers, international organizations, and development institutions on regional strategy, governance, and reform.

He is the author and editor of numerous books and reports on Russia’s internal evolution, regional power shifts, and the strategic importance of Eurasia, and a frequent contributor to major policy journals including Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, and Foreign Policy. His work is known for combining deep historical perspectives with practical policy analysis, offering long-range insight into state resilience, institutional decay, and geopolitical change.

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