PIPE Workshop: Isaac Hale (Occidental College)

In the 117th Congress only three-fourths of freshman U.S. Senators had prior elected experience, a sharp decline from 1960, when over 90% of freshmen had such experience. What explains this decline in experienced politicians surviving the highest level of electoral competition to Capitol Hill? We address this question using original primary election data that includes all Senate candidates from 1980-2022, including those that drop out during the campaign. We find that the number of amateurs emerging in primaries rises considerably since 1980, while the supply of quality candidates stays constant. We also show that the electoral advantage quality candidates enjoy over amateurs is declining, with amateurs being just as likely to win the nomination as quality candidates in the contemporary era. Examining potential mechanisms, we find that this shift is not due to a closing fundraising gap by amateurs but to weakened coordination among state parties in increasingly uncompetitive states. (Co-authors Carlos Algara (CGU), Michael Heseltine (University of Amsterdam postdoc), Byengseon Bae (CGU PhD candidate), Edward Headington (CGU PhD candidate) & Evan Lieber (Oxy undergraduate))

Host or Publisher PIPE Collaborative