MBSE–Leverage Monte Carlo Simulation to Plan Uncertain Systems Development

Title: “MBSE – Leverage Monte Carlo Simulation to Plan Uncertain Systems Development”

Systems analysis methods include simulation of logical, network-based models. If introduced early in systems life cycle planning, they can be more effective. This tutorial advances the case that earlier model-based planning to handle uncertain conditions is likely to improve MBSE. An afternoon hands-on experience clinic with computerized models transfers skills and knowledge.

Presenter: Keith Hornbacher, MBA

Key Words: Systems Analysis, Simulation, Risk Management, Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Applicable to: New product development (medical devices; technical innovations; aerospace/ defense); Large infrastructure development projects; Programmatic/project Life Cycle Cost analysis; Capital expansion decisions (plants, construction); Executive decision making across program lifecycle phases.

Goal: Increase participants’ confidence to handle uncertainty in planning systems Portfolio, Program, and Project Life Cycles using Monte Carlo Simulation of logical networks.

• Morning: Understand the SE System Analysis and Risk Management Processes, especially the activity “Analyze Risks”

o Clarify differences among types of uncertainty and risk (threats, opportunities)

o Address uncertainty early enough in programmatic life cycles to enable favorable results

o Learn to collect quality data, recognize personal biases, address organizational risk attitudes; all considered in context of AI’s emerging role

o Communicating uncertain results to those in power who demand, “Just give me the number!”

o Demonstrate how Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of networked Program/project plans can advance implementation of MBSE beyond deterministic, qualitative thinking.

• Afternoon: Demonstration and Clinic using MCS software[2]

o Demonstration and executive level overview of key features (computer not required)

o Clinic: Hands on computer lab

§ Experiment with simulation of logical network-based development plans in a workshop using world class MCS methods, tools; use case examples (participants may supply)

§ Leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) in MBSE context using simulation

§ Impact and handling Trade-off Analyses

§ Quantitative analysis of plans, technical/cost/schedule risk using MCS

[1] References include Figure 2.27 IPO diagram for Risk Management process and Figure 2.46 IPO diagram for System Analysis, SYSTEMS ENGINEERING HANDBOOK, Fifth Edition INCOSE–TP–2003–002–05 2023; ISO-31000 (2018); ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 (2023); AACE International Recommended Practices; Project Management Institute (PMI); US General Accountability Office (GAO) Guides; NASA Handbooks and Guides

[2] Tools: Participants will receive instructions on downloading free personal copies of the demo software in advance of the tutorial and an invitation to a one hour Zoom session hosted by Mr. Hornbacher to test the software. If participants have a candidate case study for review, its suitability will be considered before the clinic.

Keith Hornbacher is dedicated to sharing effective practices, methods and tools to resolve programmatic risk and uncertainty, and to reduce the incidence of unexpected events. Essential to this purpose is understanding programs/projects in their organizational context. Complex projects and programs may be systems of systems with characteristics of high uncertainty in emergent environments. Mr. Hornbacher’s mission is to collaborate with clients and improve their capability to make effective risk-informed decisions by implementing Monte Carlo Simulation where appropriate.

Qualifications and Experience

Mr. Hornbacher is an experienced Project Risk Analyst, Program Risk Manager, and a Consultant-Educator whose career spans four decades working in the public and private sectors. Highlights include:

• Domains cross many industries: construction, energy, aerospace/defense, transportation, water, software-intensive systems, pharmaceuticals, medical technology and healthcare
• Signature assignments: quantitative Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analyses (ICSRA)

· Mega Infrastructure Development Projects (support for Owners; Contractors; and 3rd Parties)

· Department of Energy: Risk Management Subject Matter Expert (SME), senior executive level

· NASA science missions: review and consultation; Joint cost-schedule Confidence Levels (JCLs)

· Project risk audits: US Government Accountability Office (GAO); Architect of Capitol (AOC)

· Advanced Technology: “Stealth” tactical USAF/USN fighter aircraft prototypes

· Unique Gravity Based Structure platform: Canadian North Atlantic in “iceberg alley” Nova Scotia

· Environmental Watershed Filtration Mega Project Pacific Northwest

• Program Risk Manager: Hughes/Raytheon/FAA Advanced GPS Air Traffic Management System
• Vice president, senior management consultant in firm that developed leading quantitative project risk analysis methods and software tools using Monte Carlo Simulation
• Hornbacher & Associates, a certified Minnesota Veteran Owned Small Business, established 1993

International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE): Program presenter including the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center, INCOSE Hampton Roads Area Chapter, Norfolk, VA; Interests in Working Groups: Risk Management, Decision Analysis, Large Infrastructure, and Tools Integration & Model Lifecycle Management; past Director, Northstar Chapter.

Globally recognized best practices: Mr. Hornbacher authored contributions to AACE International’s Recommended Practices; the PMBOK® Guide (PMI®); Schedule and Cost Guides published by US Government Accountability Office (GAO); all consistent with guides published by ISO and NASA.

Leader of graduate level courses and seminars: He presented graduate level project risk management courses and seminars over a 15 year span on campus and virtually as a member of University of Pennsylvania’s Affiliated Faculty, Organizational Dynamics. Participants were mid to senior level executives whose MSc concentrations included (a) managing project risk, uncertainty and unexpected; and (b) quantitative project risk analysis methods and tools.

Professional societies and conferences: Presentation venues have included webinars and symposia hosted by INCOSE; AACE International; PMI®; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE); ICEAA, Ottawa, Ontario, CA; and the American Society for Quality (ASQ). He is a life member of IISE.

Register no later than Friday, 4 May 2025

ONLY 20 SEATS AVAILABLE

Cost to attend:

Non members - $325.00*

INCOSE Members - $150.00 (with FULL membership only - excludes CAB memberships)

*Please note: The Non-Member registration includes a one-year membership ($175)to INCOSE. Membership will be activated during the check-in process.

Please reach out to if you have any questions.

Thank you,

INCOSE North Star

Info: • Context, Overview; Systems Engineering Guides, Practices; Quantitative Decision Making
• Use of appropriate planning models across system Life Cycle phases
• Roles of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) in MBSE – planning for uncertainty and risk
• Collection of quality data, risk parameters; biases, roles of workshops and interviews
• Prerequisites for credible simulation models of logical networks; using the “V”
• Usage of AI – Augmented/Artificial Intelligence
• Organizational governance, risk attitudes, and continuity

Info: • Top level introduction to modeling with MCS software tools (computer not required)
• Computer Clinic – hands on experience with Safran Risk software pre-loaded on participants’ computers

Host or Publisher North Star Chapter INCOSE