Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles

Jean-Francois Mercure, University of Exeter

Electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce road transport emissions and have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity. Past a tipping point where uptake becomes self-propelling, EVs could irreversibly replace internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), as industry discontinues conventional production chains. Here we provide evidence that this tipping point likely lies within the next few years in lead markets of the EU and China, and potentially the US, which could spill out into peripheral vehicle markets across the rest of the world. We use a comprehensive dataset over the composition of car sales between 2016 and 2022, tracking 2452 models in 33 countries. The historical evidence shows a sudden decline in conventional vehicle sales starting in 2019 concurrent to a rapid rise in sales of EVs. Critically, the variance and lag-1 autocorrelation of fluctuations in ICEV sales have increased, indicating a loss of resilience of the incumbent technology consistent with the approach to a tipping point. Activating tipping points does not necessarily achieve a sufficiently rapid transition to meet emissions targets. We use simulations of technology evolution to identify timescales for cost-parity and policy frameworks that could accelerate the transition to largely eliminate ICEVs before 2050. We also discuss similarities with the ongoing transition in electricity generation towards wind and solar power.

About the speaker

Dr Jean-Francois Mercure is Associate Professor in Climate Policy at the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter Business School, UK, formerly Senior Climate Economist at the World Bank. He is also Principal Economist at Cambridge Econometrics and Chief Economist at the startup TREX. His research focuses on the economics of low-carbon transitions. He develops models and methods for public policy appraisal for assessing the effectiveness and macro- and socio-economic impacts of diverse types of low-carbon, energy and climate policies. He co-founded the World Bank’s C3A program (www.climatecapacitycoalition.org ) aiming at increasing capacity in ministries of finance for informed low-carbon transition policy-making. He led the UK Government-funded 'Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition' (www.eeist.co.uk) program, working with stakeholders in India, China, Brazil, the UK and EU. He helped raise awareness of and provide analytics for assessing transition risks and the macroeconomic impacts of stranded fossil fuel assets. He authored the book ‘Complexity Economics for Environmental Governance’.

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