Early Warning of Foreign Malign Information Operations

Malign information operations by foreign state and nonstate actors are a substantial threat to a free and open world. These operations are intended to manipulate the global information environment for geostrategic purposes by disseminating false or misleading information and promoting specific narratives to influence public perceptions abroad, destabilize societies, and achieve geopolitical objectives.

In this presentation, Chris Mouton will explore methods to detect underlying instances of propaganda devices that might be indicative of broader malign information operations by analyzing hundreds of articles from multiple overseas media outlets. Specifically, he will explore using large language models (LLMs), which present an opportunity for the detection of overseas propaganda, disinformation, and misinformation targeting foreign audiences. Unlike traditional methods that rely heavily on specific linguistic indicators or network analysis, LLMs have increasingly large context windows, which offer the ability to incorporate the broader context of the text. The presentation will assess the performance of these detection tools to gain insights into the capabilities of these technologies to identify overseas propaganda.

Christopher Mouton is a senior engineer at RAND and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His primary research interests include technological innovation, public policy, artificial intelligence (AI), and information operations (IO). He leads a research team dedicated to improving the operational effectiveness of special operations forces (SOF). His cost-effectiveness analyses have informed major defense acquisition decisions and he has developed innovative methodologies for prioritizing technology investments to achieve national security objectives. He has also conducted pioneering research to detect foreign malign information operations and to enhance the U.S. military’s ability to counter them. He holds a Ph.D. in aeronautics and has received several honors, including the Leonard Schaeffer Medal from RAND.

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CPEs: There will be 2 CPE credits for the meeting.

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