Can Putin’s Economic Model Survive Permanent War?

Drawing on decades of research into Russia’s economic structure, Vladislav Inozemtsev examines how war, sanctions adaptation, and expanding state control have reshaped the country’s economic model. Record defense spending, industrial reorientation, and rerouted trade toward non-Western partners have created an appearance of resilience — yet this stability rests on fragile foundations.

Private enterprise is being crowded out, technological isolation is deepening as access to Western inputs declines, and labor shortages driven by military losses and emigration are constraining growth. At the same time, tightening internet controls and platform blockings disrupt digital infrastructure and impede business, while language mandates requiring the use of Russian erode long-established brands. Rising tax pressures on small and medium-sized businesses further squeeze the private sector.

Is Russia building a sustainable wartime economy, or merely postponing an inevitable reckoning? This discussion examines the model’s durability, the hidden costs beneath the surface, and the scenarios that could define Russia’s economic trajectory if permanent war continues.

Hors d'oeuvres and refreshments will be provided.
RSVP is recommended, and donations welcomed.

Vladislav Inozemtsev is a Russian economist and political scientist focused on global economic trends, the knowledge economy, and Russia’s development. He founded the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow in 1996 and has held fellowships at institutions including Johns Hopkins University, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the German Council on Foreign Relations.

He advised the Russian government’s modernization commission under Dmitry Medvedev (2009–2011) and left Russia in 2014 after the start of the war against Ukraine. Based in Washington, D.C., he is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Analysis and Strategies in Europe and a Special Advisor at the Middle East Media Research Institute, and has authored more than 20 books.

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