"Stabilisation" with China in a Trump world: feasible or fantasy?

Abstract

Perhaps the only genuine policy achievement of the Albanese Labor government in Australia is the success it has enjoyed in “stabilising” relations with China. The hot war talk, tariffs and diplomatic freeze of the preceding period from 2017-21 are at an end, and some Chinese media outlets now praise Mr Albanese as a kind of model for dealing with Beijing: a stark change from the prime ministerships of Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull when Australia saw itself as a world leader in ‘calling out’ and ‘pushing back’ against Chinese assertiveness. But the coming again of Trump to the White House and the very real possibility of an intensified trade war between the US and China now places new pressures on how close US allies conduct their relations with Xi Jinping. How can “stabilisation” survive the turbulence likely to arise from an administration whose Cabinet is champing at the bit to counter China even if the US president and Vice-president want peace?

James Curran is the International Editor at the Australian Financial Review (AFR) and Professor of Modern History at Sydney University, where he specialises in foreign relations history and the problem of nationalism. His latest book, Australia’s China Odyssey: From Euphoria to Fear is a study of the history of the relationship from 1949 to the present. He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences, a Fellow of the Australian Institute of International Affairs and previously held the Keith Cameron Chair in Australian history at University College Dublin. In 2010 James was a Fulbright Scholar at Georgetown University in Washington DC and prior to academic life worked in the Prime Minister’s Department and the Office of National Assessments. In addition to books published on Australian prime ministers, the problem of nationalism and Australia-US relations, Curran also published in 2021 a study of Australian Rugby Legend David Campese, entitled Campese: The Last of the Dream Sellers.

Host or Publisher NZ Contemporary China Research Centre|Kōmara Kura