Amar Bhide discusses Uncertainty and Enterprise

Uncertainty--doubt about what is or could be--fuels our ambitions and fears. Tantalizing possibilities spur us to innovate and explore. Yet, we also strive to reduce uncertainty. Mountain climbers and deep-sea divers plan carefully. Rules, routines, and research in business, the law, and medicine are designed to increase predictability and forestall unpleasant surprises.

Mainstream economics, however, hides from uncertainty, banishing it to the mystical world of unknown unknowns or reducing it to mechanistic calculation. Its textbooks ignore everyday problems that lack demonstrably correct solutions. But resolute responses to such problems require confidence. Where does confidence come from, especially when we go beyond the known? How do we justify our fallible judgments to ourselves and others?

Drawing on more than thirty years of teaching and research, Amar Bhidé offers compelling answers. Inspired by--while modernizing--the forgotten ideas of the economist Frank Knight and other great twentieth-century thinkers, Bhidé challenges both hyper-rational economic orthodoxy and claims of pervasive behavioral biases. He shows that while big bets require more justification, the facts alone don't persuade skeptics. Instead, narratives that combine reason, contextual evidence, and creative interpretations align our imaginations.

Bhidé's framework and rich examples explain neglected and surprising features of entrepreneurship. He shows how startups and giant corporations coexist; how seemingly bureaucratic procedures encourage the giants to undertake complex high-stakes initiatives; and, how vividly described possibilities help make the imagined real. Cutting through esoteric theories--but avoiding glib prescriptions-- Uncertainty and Enterprise examines the foundations of bold yet reasonable action.

Amar Bhidé is Professor of Health Policy at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and Professor of Business Emeritus at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He has researched and taught about innovation, entrepreneurship, and finance for over three decades. Bhidé is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founding member of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia, and a founding editor of Capitalism and Society. He is the author of A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy; The Venturesome Economy: How Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World; The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses; and Of Politics and Economic Reality. He has written numerous articles for the Harvard Business Review; The Wall Street Journal; The New York Times; the Financial Times; and Project Syndicate.

Review Quotes:
"In Uncertainty and Enterprise, Amar Bhidé reminds us of the importance of complexity and context in understanding human action. His wide-ranging insights connect contemporary events to timeless themes in a way that is both fresh and engaging." -- Tim Besley, Professor of Economics and Political Science & W. Arthur Lewis Professor of Development Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science

"An important book and a wonderful guide for flourishing in a rapidly changing world. Amar Bhidé illustrates how our destiny doesn't have to be controlled by authoritarian governments or impersonal scientific forces. We can shape our future, by holding true to our hallowed democratic traditions and honoring our best selves." -- Bill Bradley, US Senator, 1979-1997

"Uncertainty has long been a source of puzzlement-seen by some as central to economic life even as it remains frustratingly difficult to define or analyze. Amar Bhidé cuts through this confusion, providing a lucid journey through both the history of the concept and its ongoing commercial implications. The story he tells is provocative, humane, and always illuminating. Uncertainty and Enterprise will be a definitive resource for anyone who seeks to understand a big question that yields no easy answers." -- Angus Burgin, Associate Professor of History, Johns Hopkins University

"A compelling argument for recognizing uncertainty as a key factor in economic analyses, and how to build it into our strategies. This is a magisterial synthesis of forgotten theories, and a persuasive appeal for reform in the economics profession. It offers thought-provoking insights for anyone seeking to navigate our turbulent times." -- Gillian Tett, Provost, King's College, University of Cambridge, and Columnist, Financial Times

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