2025 Eller Economic Outlook Luncheon

Arizona’s economy lost steam last year, with very slow job gains. That weakness has continued into 2025, according to the preliminary data. This has been matched by modestly rising unemployment and rapidly falling hire rates. Overall, the labor market appears to be on a knife-edge, if the preliminary data are correct. Income growth was also slow to start the year, but taxable retail sales growth has firmed through June. Housing cost burdens remain very high, with housing permit activity down so far this year, compared to the same period last year.

Where are the global, national, state, and local economies headed next? How fast will the Federal Reserve reduce interest rates? Will housing affordability improve with falling interest rates? Will Arizona's labor market regain its vigor? How will tariffs and mass deportations impact the U.S. and state economies? Can asset prices continue to rise?

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Host or Publisher UA Eller Economic and Business Research Center